LG July Money

Well, it was an interesting month on the LG money front.

Tim Murray's people fudged his June numbers;
Deb Goldberg fudged her fundraising numbers;
Deb Goldberg threw in another million for the heckuvit; and
Andrea Silbert continued to lead the non-self-funding money race.

As anyone who has been around this state knows, it takes a significant ad presence on the airwaves to win a downballot primary. Deb Goldberg has positioned herself well to take that victory home with her to Brookline. It's not guaranteed, but any objective observer would have to say that at this point, her largesse gives her the upper hand as we head into "ad" season.

That said, unlike in 2002 when Chris Gabrieli spent nearly $2 million on ads and faced an ad campaign of $270K from Lois Pines and $165K from John Slattery, the ad presence of the well-heeled candidate's opponents will be significantly greater than that year where the order of finish was:

Gabrieli- 306,043 (46%)
Pines- 205,208 (31%)
Slattery- 150,313 (25%)

What do people think the results will look like this year when Goldberg spends $2 (or 3 or 4) million on TV, Silbert spends $600K and Murray spends $400K? With $1 million in non-Goldberg ads and 2, 3 or 4 million in Goldberg ads, it would seem there is a better chance for an "upset" this year than in previous years. Plus, with turnout supposedly down this year (continuing the trend in primaries), who does that help? Murray with his field operation? Silbert with the clearest message? Deb with most money?

Finally, last month I wondered why Murray fudged his June tally and whether he was holding checks. This month's performance shows that he was not. This month's spending also shows that the Murray campaign is not stockpiling money like it should be. A very rought look at the 2006 numbers indicate that Murray has raised 500K his year, spent 320K, and is up 170K from his Feb. 1 number. Silbert has raised 440K, spent 215K and is up 155K from her Feb. 1 number. Murray has spent more than 60% of what he's taken in this year, whereas Silbert has spent just under half. Granted, some of that may be going into a field operation, but will that pay off? Perhaps, but Silbert's and Goldberg's field effort will not be significantly less than Murray's given the vacuum created by the governor's race. Maybe I'll be proven wrong this time around, both on the impact of a ground game and the importance of winning the ad war.

As you stew over all that, here are the numbers.

1. Deb Goldberg

Starting Balance: $1,057,124.84
Receipts: $1,023,417.34
Expenditures: $98,199.63
Ending Balance: $1,982,342.55

2. Andrea Silbert

Starting Balance: $475.517.32
Receipts: $68,851.00
Expenditures: $19,040.25
Ending Balance: $525,328.07

3. Tim Murray

Starting Balance: $386,166.26
Receipts: $61,743.95
Expenditures: $52,013.16
Ending Balance: $395,897.04