Wednesday, August 23, 2006

LG Poll Analysis

Couple quick thoughts on the Suffolk poll showing Murray with 11%, Goldberg with 6% and Silbert with 5%.

First, this poll means nothing, nada, zip, zilch, zero. We would know just as much about the state of the race today as we did before the poll came out.

Second, let's look at history: where was the LG race and Treasurer's race in 2002?

On August 29th, a Suffolk poll comes out with the following numbers:

LG:

Gabrieli - 30%
Slattery - 23%
Pines - 16%

That's sort of relevant, but the Treasurer's numbers are more relevant because none of them had advertised at the time of the poll:

Steve Murphy - 17%
Mike Cahill - 14%
Jim Segel - 12%
Tim Cahill - 11%

Who won? Tim Cahill. Murphy? Came in 3rd.

So to those Murray folks getting their hopes up, go for it, your hopes are as likely to come to true as not.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

"tommy', er 'highhopes', er 'smitty' whatever your real moniker is (there can only be one of you out there) "Tim for two" is almost as good an idea as trying to pose as a Silbert volunteer during the signature campaign and using your smitty aol email address...