OK, so the latest Statehouse News poll is out and it has Deval Patrick with a big lead.
Now, I know it's early, and I know we can't rely fully on polls yet. However, I think this lead is similar to building up a lot of speed going downhill so that you can safely make it uphill. It's also like stockpiling a large campaign warchest so that you can a) fend of potential challengers and b) have enough to spend at the end. (Wait, that didn't work for Reilly, so scratch that analogy...)
But I think this lead is going to hold. Here's why:
In a couple of weeks, the TV ads are going to start flying. We've already seen the effect a large TV ad buy can have on a race. (Don't believe me? In addition to Chris's ads this year, check out this chart showing the impact Gabrieli's big ad buy in 2002 had.)
However, ad buys have less of an impact when they are countered with other ad buys. This year, Gabrieli's going to have a ton of ads (probably $5-6 million worth, I'd guess). Reilly's going to have $3-4 million worth of them. Patrick's going to have $2-3 million too (I predict he raises a ton in July-Sept. - like $2 million or so - plus chips in perhaps a million of his own).
With all those ads flying, it will be impossible for any of them to so solidly stamp out the others' messages that the status quo will hold. Sure, the race will tighten, but in a contested media battle, no one can make up more than 10 points. In my book, Patrick should keep doing what he's doing, and perhaps even spend a little now to get 5 or so more points ahead. Then, he'll have a cushion for the inevitable tightening of the race.
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3 comments:
No way he raises 2 million b/t now and September, that's virtually impossible.
why not? he raised 385K in June, and he's got some mo, so who says he can't clear 600K in July and August and Sept?
yeah, it's high, but he's the only one who can do it, and his "electability" ratings just shot up in the last 5 hours...
Who cares about how much he will raise. Deval will win because he cares about the people of Massachusetts, he doesn't leave to go back to Utah every other week or to go around to other parts of the country, and he'll focus on getting our economy back on track our health care and educational affordable again, and gasoline prices to come down, as well as work on alternative energy. I commend patrick for supporting Cape Wind, an important project that will usher in alternative energy in america. Massachusetts has a golden opportunity to become a state who truly cares about its citizens and Deval will be the person to bring us back. www.devalpatrick.com
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