LG March Money

Here's the LG money roundup for March, in order of cash on hand.

1. Andrea Silbert: $408,226.86
Starting Balance: $389,255.36
Receipts: $ 47,388.74
Expenses: $ 28,417.24
Net + $18,971.5

2. Tim Murray: $323.234.76
Starting Balance: $237,954.18
Receipts: $140,117.74
Expenses: $54,836.76
Net + $85,280.58

3. Deb Goldberg: $155,479.94
Starting Balance: $143,606.11
Receipts: $ 57,030.44
Expenses: $ 45,156.61
Net + $11,873.83

4. Sam Kelley: $26,039.26
Starting Balance: $18,709.00
Receipts: $14,090.00
Expenses: $ 6,760.54
Net + $7330.26


All in all, an impressive month for Murray. He's clearly come back after his slow-ish start to the year (hat tip to da clerk over at BMG). Feb. seemed status quo for all candidates, but this surge by Murray is noteworthy. However, his burn rate has to cause a bit of consternation. Looking inside the numbers, it appears that he spent a lot of money on invitations/printing in the first half, which is understandable because he must have had a lot of events to raise all that dough.

If Murray wants to compete with Silbert on the air, he needs to a) have another month like this in April, b) win the convention and c) start racking up political support outside of his geographic area.

Silbert, on the other hand, needs to step up the fundraising. She's plateau'd a bit, but it appears as if she expected that to happen because she hasn't been spending as freely as Murray and Goldberg have - and yet she seems to be resonating well among the people I talk to. If she goes into the Convention in the money lead and comes out with a 2nd place finish, then in my mind she'll have exceeded expectations. Even getting on the ballot will be something her campaign will be able to be proud of, given her newcomer status.

As for Goldberg, I need help: what is her deal? Is she planning to write a big check to pay for media? Is she just raising enough money to pay staff and keep a comfortable nest egg? I can't figure it out. She has all that staff, and must be thinking she's going to build political support. If someone could enlighten me as to her strategy, I'm all ears. I would love to hear from someone on the inside who can credibly, even anonomously, fill me in on her plans. I like her, but I guess I need to see more evidence that she's into this, because I just don't see her winning unless she either writes the check or has something else up her sleeve. She could, however, be planning a "June Surprise" at the convention. If she can engineer a win, then that would be a significant upset. If she can keep Silbert off the ballot (seems doubtful), then that would be even better for her. Both are unlikely though, and Murray has to be the favorite to win.

(As I've said before, Murray finishing anything but first at the convention is a shocking loss that could prove devastating to his effort. Even though the winner of the convention doesn't always go on to win the primary, and even though some might say it's a jinx to win the convention, in this case, Murray is such an insider that for him to fail to come out on top would not be good. And after raising so much and, more importantly, spending so much recently, if he doesn't win, that's bad. Also, he has been talking a fair bit recently about how he already has his 15% and has almost finished his signature gathering. To make those bold statements and not win the convention would be a failure.)

And Kelley: I'm also now wondering if he's planning to write his own check. He appears to have a small staff, but how on earth is he getting his signatures? Does he have a squad of volunteers like the others do? Perhaps, and let me know if you know. It would be a shame if he didn't get on the ballot. How is his delegate outreach going? I have heard from the others (enough, Tim!), but not from him. His Deval endorsement was bold and might put him over the bar and if so, kudos on that.

So another month of fundraising is done and things are pretty much the same. I think it's going to take a surprise at the Convention to really shake this race up. Whether it's Murray not winning, someone not getting on the ballot, or something crazy happening, this race needs a shakeup if it's going to get any attention. If that doesn't happen, then it will plod along all summer.

Look forward to your comments.